Apple Floundering?

There was a mixed reaction yesterday at Apple's media day to the announcement of iPhone 4S. Every was expecting the iPhone 5, but it didn't happen. My initial thoughts were that Apple was forced to show something. Yes, there were some software improvements and Siri is cool, but was it really worth the effort of the PR push? I believe some analysts who wrote about production delays on the iPhone 5 called it correctly. There was no way they could launch the iPhone 5 in October or even November, but with the Kindle Fire announcement and the upcoming launch of Samsung's Nexus Prime and Android's Ice Cream Sandwich operating system Apple felt the pressure.

Android is still experiencing leaps in growth while Apple's market share of the mobile OS pie is stagnant. Bill Gurley called it correctly months ago that Android is an unstoppable freight train, and Apple feels it coming. Samsung alone approaches iPhone's sales numbers and I stated for a while now that by 2013 Android will takeover the seemingly unstoppable iPad in the tablet market. And this is not Tim Cook's fault. Whether it was Cook or Jobs, this was and is inevitable, which is why Apple had to start a patent battle that many consider dirty or counter to all that Silicon Valley stands for.

Amazon Web Service Start-Up Challenge 2010

AWS Start-Up Challenge 2010 is running again with a deadline of October 31, 2010. More info here:

The annual Amazon Web Services (AWS) Start-up Challenge is back with an expanded world footprint – start-ups in 22 countries across the Americas, Asia, and Europe can enter to win. This year, we will recognize 5 regional semi-finalists from each of the 3 regions, 6 finalists, and select one global grand prize winner.

The AWS Start-up Challenge is an annual competition designed for young, promising start-ups to get noticed and compete for a chance to win $100,000 in cash and credits. Start-ups that are using the AWS cloud computing platform can submit an application which describes their business plan and their use of AWS.

Ah, Twitter, Lucky You’re Not in Ecommerce!

Down for Days? No Problem for Asynchronous Communication Platforms.

How many times have Twitter users seen the white whale? Definitely more than Captain Ahab. Maybe we should all be called “Ishmael”? Once again users are going through an epic period of downtime and other random mishaps. Rob DeMillo, CTO of 4INFO, recently experienced missing five days of mentions, which I experienced a few times over these recent months.

Taking a step back, isn’t it amazing that we all still stay with Twitter? Sure, there are scarce alternatives, but even when a direct competitor, such as Pownce, was around there were seemingly more rounds of downtime but Twitter still grew. Are Twitter users simply sadomasochists? Of course not.

I believe Twitter users have a high tolerance because we know this is an asynchronous communications platform. Sure there is the importance of timing in tweets, but we also benefit from the ability to respond (and even ignore) to direct tweets or conversations at our own leisure. Twitter is an asynchronous platform in real-time clothing.

Imagine if Amazon or eBay suffered this much downtime? Their business would be toast. Even IM platforms, such as Meebo, would suffer a mass exodus if they had half the downtimes that Twitter goes through. Twitter is in a unique space of user forgiveness and frustration without consequences that has made me think about how to apply this model in other areas.

Fast casual foods? Not really fast, but very casual. Order your burger (a very kickass burger) with no set delivery time. Just a range of 1-2 days. The burger is so awesome that consumers would be willing to deal with the random delivery time. Hmmm, maybe not. Asynchronous online radio? Select hundreds of songs that will be streamed to a desktop application in random order but might present pauses in your listening for up to 2 hours. Definitely a “no”. It seems Twitter’s model is unique to its short-form of online communication. I guess we have to just suck it up and deal. Or maybe Six Apart can revive Pownce or Kevin Rose can build another competing platform?

Microsoft Azure Launches... Tech's Dogfight in the Clouds

The juggernaut that is Microsoft growled at PDC 2008. Fierce determination, sheer intelligence still present within Microsoft and questionable leadership continues to move it forward. Microsoft's announcement of Azure provides their answer to Google App Engine, Amazon Web Service, and other cloud computing plays.

Microsoft continues to make the tech landscape exciting and fun to observe. The Empire lives on!... Well, let's wait and see how they execute on Azure over the next few years.

ZDNet's Mary Jo Foley has an excellence overview, "Microsoft’s Azure cloud platform: A guide for the perplexed."

ReadWriteWeb's Richard MacManus has some more commentary here, "Microsoft Azure Aims to Re-define the OS."

Sramana Mitra's Amazon Adventure... "Entrepreneur Journeys" is Out Today

Sramana Mitra has a great post at Forbes, "My Adventure With Amazon," about her experience with Amazon's BookSurge. BookSurge is their new publishing subsidiary and it will be interesting to observe how they will disrupt the traditional publishing channels.

Sramana's has a prior article, "How Amazon Could Change Publishing," that examines how they could disintermediate the old guard of publishing. She explains:

Retailers take almost 50%. The agent takes 15% to 20%. The publisher gets squeezed--it's cause for huge celebration if they make 20%.

"On a book that costs $24.95, the author gets at most $1 to $1.50," says Eileen Gittins, chief executive of Blurb, an online print-on-demand publisher of photography books.

Wow. A buck a book. I thought about writing a book in the coming year, but these economics suck and might not be worth my time if there wasn't an alternative. It seems it would be wise for someone like me to go with Amazon's BookSurge. The economics have to make sense for a person with a day job to suffer from less sleep and an angry wife to write a book :) More from Sramana, "Amazon: Will It Kindle Vertical Integration?"

Also Sramana's book, ENTREPRENEUR JOURNEYS, is out today. The book's synopsis:

"Through all the ups and downs of the past twenty-five years, technology entrepreneurs have learned to navigate opportunities and market windows and bring to bear new companies. Many have fallen by the wayside, but others have thrived and grown into successful business leaders. In ENTREPRENEUR JOURNEYS, Volume One (Amazon’s BookSurge; October 1, 2008; $16.95 paperback), serial entrepreneur and Forbes columnist Sramana Mitra offers the rare seat at the table with some of these fascinating entrepreneurs providing an intimate look at how to build a thriving business. As one entrepreneur speaks with another, readers gain access to case studies—conversations really—exploring the alleys of entrepreneurship in a way that only an experienced strategist like Mitra can probe and extract. Her synthesis of key learnings and incisive analysis add great depth to her discussions with:

* Sridhar Vembu, founder and CEO of AdventNet, and Jerry Rawls, co-founder and CEO of Finisar, on bootstrapping
* Steve Hafner, co-founder and CEO of Kayak, Gautam Godhwani, founder and CEO of SimplyHired, and Russ Fradin, co-founder and CEO of Adify, on taking on giants
* Philippe Courtot, Chairman and CEO of Qualys, and Steve Singh, Chairman and CEO of Concur, on disrupting business models
* Marcos Galperin, co-founder and CEO of MercadoLibre, and Edward Fields, founder and CEO of HotChalk, on addressing unmet market needs
* Hans Peter Michelet, Executive Chairman of Energy Recovery Incorporated (ERI), Carol Realini, founder and CEO of Obopay, and Harish Hande co-founder and Managing Director of SELCO, on tackling planet scale problems"

"There's a New Conversation"... Notes from the Event

I enjoyed yesterday's event celebrating 10 years since The Cluetrain Manifesto. The event's blog has all the speaking overviews:

Doc Searl: Intro

Deborah Schultz: Stop yelling & start weaving

Thor Muller: Customer Service From the Outside-in

Giovanni Rodriguez: The Role of Positioning in the Age of Conversation

Andreas Weigend: Conversational Data

Jeremiah Owyang: Getting Your Company Conversation-Ready

Peter Hirshberg: The Future of the Cluetrain


Each session had bits of good information. Some spoke to agencies (e.g. marketing, pr) more so than others, so those weren't as interesting to me. I enjoyed Andreas Weigend and Peter Hirshberg's sessions the most.

Prof. Weigend discussed how we've been moving from a data poor world to a data rich world over the past decade. Think about the amount of data we now gather today versus his example of how we use to "milk data from five digits of your zip code."

He stated how we're moving from a single customer focused revenue model (i.e. ARPUs, average revenue per users) to consumer network revenue models. Data moves so much today and the interconnections are greater. Sears stopped sending out their famous catalogs in 1993 since prices could no longer be stagnant for a year.

Andreas noted how 25%-45% of Amazon's revenue came from items that people didn't know about and were referred through recommendations.

How can companies actually use conversational data? He also stated that the future faces a consumer data revolution where we have to answer "who pays whom?"

He asked, "When will it be easy for us to reach companies as it is to reach people?"

Peter Hirschberg was entertaining again, and he really drove home for me how for companies "understanding your audience is a competitive weapon."