My tech op-ed article posted this morning at Venturebeat, "Are Q&A startups a threat to Google?", and was reposted at the NYTimes site here. [Update] Also Techmeme-ed here, which is cool since it's my favorite news aggregator.
Most of my interview transcript with Ro Choy, CEO of Peerpong, and Charlie Cheever, Co-founder of Quora, was edited out, so below are some of their additional insights:
When did the light bulb for Quora go off for you?
Charlie Cheever: Over the last few years, there have been a bunch of services that have let people put more and more content onto the Internet -- Facebook and Flickr for photos, Twitter for link sharing, status updates, etc. -- but we didn't see any great way for people to share the knowledge that they accumulate over their lives, so we wanted to make a place for that. There were other things as well. For example, I like blogging but I didn't always know what people wanted me to write about. One thing we've tried to build Quora to provide is a good set of prompts from other people that you can respond to.
When you looked at this opportunity, what were the comparables? Yahoo! Answers, Google, or others?
Charlie Cheever: We thought about all those things but we’ve mostly been focused on making a product to fill a need we saw in the world. I do think there are a lot of things that people want to know that you can't find easily with a search engine because the information either isn't on the web yet, or isn't there in a form that you can easily consume. This is especially true with long tail content.
Ro Choy: Our focus and good corollary is Google. Google can effectively find content through use of pagerank. Can we do that for people? If you believe the vast amount of knowledge doesn’t exist online yet, then if you could ultimately categorize an index of content, publish it, and make it searchable…. If you could do this for 50 million, 100 million people, or half a billion people -- that was the Big Hairy Audacious Goal.
Showing posts with label venturebeat. Show all posts
Showing posts with label venturebeat. Show all posts
Saturday, October 30, 2010
Monday, December 28, 2009
Tech Trends for 2010 — A Netscape Moment Coming Up
My third annual technology trends piece is up at VentureBeat...
Tech trends for 2010 — a Netscape moment coming up
When I made my tech trend predictions for 2009, we were in the middle of an economic meltdown. This year, I’m less focused on the recession and — thanks to my one-year old twin girls — am wading my way through a flood of information on baby products, toys and books. My mind has wandered between thoughts of Bugaboos and Ooyalas, Leapfrog and Playfish, or Seuss and Seesmic. Still, here are my tech trends for 2010.
Online Shopping Clubs Will Mature
Online shopping clubs aren’t anything new, but these post-bubble incarnations are. Leaders in this segment tend to hold “flash” sales (limited-time sales) and restrict sales to members only. Luxury goods lead this space with France’s Vente-Privee hitting $966 million in revenues this year and U.S’s Gilt Groupe earning almost $150 million in revenues in 2009. By 2010, within four years since launching in the U.S., the companies in this space will have achieved over $2 billion in worldwide sales. Talk about hockey stick growth!
This same model has transferred to other categories, with many luxury players launching travel offerings under their banners. There are also more narrowly focused sites launching, such as Totsy for moms and One Kings Lane for home décor. Woot in the U.S. and One A Day in Korea are flash sale sites that sell only one item everyday. One A Day hit $13 million this year and projects $28 million in sales for 2010 under this simplified model.
Much of this tremendous growth has been driven by the steep discounts all these sites have provided through access to excess inventory. There are concerns this category might see some trouble once the economy picks up and retailers begin rightsizing their inventory. But I believe it is here to stay because — similar to how Zynga and Playfish brought lazy interactivity to the online casual gaming space — these new e-tailers are pushing products and brand relationships to the lazy shopper. It won’t be just about discounted goods, since players like Gilt are already pushing exclusive, in-season goods. So I predict that 2010 will be a breakout year for this ecommerce category and it will move far beyond discounted luxury goods.
Gaming Will Advance Beyond PCs and Consoles
2009 was a great year for online gaming, with Zynga, Playfish, and others leading the charge and showing the power of Facebook and the social networking ecosystem’s distribution power. The next stage of online gaming will be led by more powerful gaming platforms and engines for mobile and the browser... (full article)
UPDATE: VentureBeat has a syndication partnership with the New York Times, so they select some articles everyday to republish in their Technology section and they picked my op-ed today.
Tech trends for 2010 — a Netscape moment coming up
When I made my tech trend predictions for 2009, we were in the middle of an economic meltdown. This year, I’m less focused on the recession and — thanks to my one-year old twin girls — am wading my way through a flood of information on baby products, toys and books. My mind has wandered between thoughts of Bugaboos and Ooyalas, Leapfrog and Playfish, or Seuss and Seesmic. Still, here are my tech trends for 2010.
Online Shopping Clubs Will Mature
Online shopping clubs aren’t anything new, but these post-bubble incarnations are. Leaders in this segment tend to hold “flash” sales (limited-time sales) and restrict sales to members only. Luxury goods lead this space with France’s Vente-Privee hitting $966 million in revenues this year and U.S’s Gilt Groupe earning almost $150 million in revenues in 2009. By 2010, within four years since launching in the U.S., the companies in this space will have achieved over $2 billion in worldwide sales. Talk about hockey stick growth!
This same model has transferred to other categories, with many luxury players launching travel offerings under their banners. There are also more narrowly focused sites launching, such as Totsy for moms and One Kings Lane for home décor. Woot in the U.S. and One A Day in Korea are flash sale sites that sell only one item everyday. One A Day hit $13 million this year and projects $28 million in sales for 2010 under this simplified model.
Much of this tremendous growth has been driven by the steep discounts all these sites have provided through access to excess inventory. There are concerns this category might see some trouble once the economy picks up and retailers begin rightsizing their inventory. But I believe it is here to stay because — similar to how Zynga and Playfish brought lazy interactivity to the online casual gaming space — these new e-tailers are pushing products and brand relationships to the lazy shopper. It won’t be just about discounted goods, since players like Gilt are already pushing exclusive, in-season goods. So I predict that 2010 will be a breakout year for this ecommerce category and it will move far beyond discounted luxury goods.
Gaming Will Advance Beyond PCs and Consoles
2009 was a great year for online gaming, with Zynga, Playfish, and others leading the charge and showing the power of Facebook and the social networking ecosystem’s distribution power. The next stage of online gaming will be led by more powerful gaming platforms and engines for mobile and the browser... (full article)
UPDATE: VentureBeat has a syndication partnership with the New York Times, so they select some articles everyday to republish in their Technology section and they picked my op-ed today.
Tuesday, July 14, 2009
A Funding Round is Never Closed Until Money is in the Bank
My close friend Jimmy Kim that I mentioned in my recent VentureBeat piece ("Startup Fundraising 101") pinged me about a critical point I forgot to list, which is NEVER ASSUME A DEAL IS CLOSED UNTIL MONEY IS IN THE BANK.
We experienced and know of verbal commitments that went south, signed terms sheets that went south, and other situations where investors backed out unexpectedly. So we eventually learned that even a signed document wasn't good enough until MONEY WAS IN THE BANK.
We experienced and know of verbal commitments that went south, signed terms sheets that went south, and other situations where investors backed out unexpectedly. So we eventually learned that even a signed document wasn't good enough until MONEY WAS IN THE BANK.
Wednesday, July 8, 2009
Startup Fundraising 101
My article at VentureBeat's Entrepreneur Corner is up:
"Startup Fundraising 101"
The slides in the article and below are actually from an older version, but the newest one was on my laptop that got stolen this past weekend. Not sure if I'm up for recreating this document since I can't remember all the minor tweaks (e.g. slide 12 mentioning Reed Hastings and Judy Estrin instead of Marc Andreessen) I did :(
"Startup Fundraising 101"
The slides in the article and below are actually from an older version, but the newest one was on my laptop that got stolen this past weekend. Not sure if I'm up for recreating this document since I can't remember all the minor tweaks (e.g. slide 12 mentioning Reed Hastings and Judy Estrin instead of Marc Andreessen) I did :(
Startup Fundraising 101
View more presentations from Bernard Moon.
Wednesday, February 11, 2009
GamesBeat 2009
VentureBeat's gaming conference is coming up. GamesBeat 2009 is on March 24th at the Mission Bay Conference Center in San Francisco. More info here:
Why GamesBeat?
In 2008, more than $885 million was invested into video games and virtual worlds. U.S. game industry sales rose 19 percent to $22 billion, not counting sales from online games or casual games. Those figures are astonishing and they confirm that the games industry stood out as a haven during the tough economic storm. GamesBeat 2009 will explore what will happen next.
As we stated above, it’s a time of explosive growth for the video game industry; however, it now faces a crossroads. Will games take the next step up in experience and become the pinnacle of entertainment? And, while developers seek to attain this goal, how will the games business fair? As more types of people start using games, these games are becoming increasingly interesting for advertisers. Hollywood, application-developers and retailers are all likely to use games and gaming principles to hook users with addictive content, or to engage them in ways that will lead to more purchase transactions.
Meanwhile, the traditional gaming business models are under attack. Users are shifting toward new platforms such as Facebook and casual Web games, and it’s not clear that the gaming leaders of past generations will stay on top. The Internet and the recession are driving big companies to rethink their focus on hardcore games; the costs of producing console games are out of control, putting the squeeze on independent developers.
The Nintendo Wii, the iPhone and the online game World of Warcraft now dominate the industry’s mindshare, but big questions remain: Can upstarts with free games, virtual goods, and episodic content further undermine the establishment? Does the Wii’s popularity represent the return to simplicity and cartoon-like entertainment, or are we on our way to touch-based user interfaces that immerse us in a compelling virtual reality? And is the web the path to more efficient economics, or will it introduce a flood of free titles that decimate everyone’s profits?
So, for those of you wanting to know what the future holds for games, and their effect on the world at large — whether you’re interested in console, casual or mobile phone games — you’ll want to join us on March 24th!
Why GamesBeat?
In 2008, more than $885 million was invested into video games and virtual worlds. U.S. game industry sales rose 19 percent to $22 billion, not counting sales from online games or casual games. Those figures are astonishing and they confirm that the games industry stood out as a haven during the tough economic storm. GamesBeat 2009 will explore what will happen next.
As we stated above, it’s a time of explosive growth for the video game industry; however, it now faces a crossroads. Will games take the next step up in experience and become the pinnacle of entertainment? And, while developers seek to attain this goal, how will the games business fair? As more types of people start using games, these games are becoming increasingly interesting for advertisers. Hollywood, application-developers and retailers are all likely to use games and gaming principles to hook users with addictive content, or to engage them in ways that will lead to more purchase transactions.
Meanwhile, the traditional gaming business models are under attack. Users are shifting toward new platforms such as Facebook and casual Web games, and it’s not clear that the gaming leaders of past generations will stay on top. The Internet and the recession are driving big companies to rethink their focus on hardcore games; the costs of producing console games are out of control, putting the squeeze on independent developers.
The Nintendo Wii, the iPhone and the online game World of Warcraft now dominate the industry’s mindshare, but big questions remain: Can upstarts with free games, virtual goods, and episodic content further undermine the establishment? Does the Wii’s popularity represent the return to simplicity and cartoon-like entertainment, or are we on our way to touch-based user interfaces that immerse us in a compelling virtual reality? And is the web the path to more efficient economics, or will it introduce a flood of free titles that decimate everyone’s profits?
So, for those of you wanting to know what the future holds for games, and their effect on the world at large — whether you’re interested in console, casual or mobile phone games — you’ll want to join us on March 24th!
Wednesday, December 24, 2008
Tech Trends for 2009 — This Time Global
Last year, I limited my predictions to the U.S. market. But the global economic meltdown has made the world flatter — and landed our nation flat broke. So to keep things interesting, I’ll extend my prognostication across borders.
I was playing with the idea of titling this column “Top Ten Tech Bailouts for 2009″ or “DeathCrunch: 2009,” but thought it best to keep our VentureBeat readers in high spirits (what with the holiday cheer and all). So without further ado, here are my top global trends to watch for the new year:
PC and online gaming continue healthy growth
There is no better indicator of this than World of Warcraft’s Wrath of the Lich King’s first-day sale of 2.8 million copies in mid-November. At $40 each, this accounts for $112 million, an astounding figure. I imagine the folks at Blizzard Entertainment had a pretty nice holiday party — drinking eggnog and munching on gingerbread cookies, macaroons and Turkish Delight to their hearts’ content…
And it’s not just the geeks keeping this segment of the market afloat either. Remember Swingers? Solid proof that cool, hip, unemployed men (and there will be many more of them) tend to play a lot of games.
But does this mean that all video game companies are recession-proof? Will that many more people opt for lazy, relatively inexpensive entertainment over going out? Not really. The NPD Group, a leading consumer market research firm, recently issued a report showing a dip in the overall video game market. October saw an 18 percent increase over sales from last year, but November’s sales were only up 10 percent. So the downturn is in fact taking a toll.
Console sales — which made up $9.4 billion of the $18.9 billion gaming industry in 2007 (according to the Entertainment Software Association) — will take a major hit. How many people will be willing to drop a few hundred bucks on a console? Plus $50 more for a game easily finished in a few days or weeks? That’s a lot to ask in the current environment. Even perennial favorites like Rock Band and Wii Fit will probably trend down due to expensive accessories.
PC and online gaming account for only 9.5 percent of total gaming sales ($9.5 billion). But the segment has the strongest prospects for growth. MMORPGs (massively-multiplayer online role-playing games) and others with multi-dimensional interaction options provide continuous character development, storylines and gameplay that bring you into contact with likeminded others. This gives them longevity and makes them worthier of that initial investment.
Video game makers should take note: Titles that deliver more value over a longer period of time will bring in more money during tough times — and that’s exactly what PC and online games do.
Surface computing slowly breaks into the mainstream
Traditional mouse and keyboard setups will start to be replaced by touch-sensitive screens that allow users to control functions with their fingertips. Hewlett-Packard’s TouchSmart PC is just the beginning.
I’m far from becoming a Microsoft fan, but Microsoft Surface is an important step forward for this technology, which will only become more pervasive in the next year. And Microsoft isn’t the only player in the game. As a TEDster, I have to plug Jeff Han’s multi-touch interface (see video below). All the while, Innotive, a company I advised, offers very cool interactive display technology.
The novelty of surface computing has led Microsoft into partnerships with Sheraton Hotels, Disney and Harrah’s Casino Hotels. These resorts have installed touch screens in their lobbies to provide local information and media tailored to their customers’ needs. The technology may only be mindly entertaining for now, but it provides substantial practical value. With the ubiquity of the iPhone, multi-touch screens are becoming increasingly intuitive, and already feel more natural than typing on a keypad in some settings. Say, for example, you are presented with a multi-touch screen as a menu in a restaurant — one click with your finger orders your meal.
But there’s even more potential in the boardroom with smart white boards becoming a reality. Imagine all the graphic facilitation geeks in your office suddenly gaining the ability to map out their ideas with just their hands? Joyous pandemonium! Dry-erase marker bonfires amid hearty rounds of Kumbaya! (At least that’s how I picture it.)
Shift from offline to online ad spend picks up speed
Advertising goliath GroupM projects that global ad spend will decrease by 0.2 percent to $458 billion in 2009 — dropping 3.2 percent to $157 billion in the U.S. alone. But I think online ad spend is a different story, and should see slow but steady growth. After all, eMarketer forecasts an 8.8 percent increase in online ad spend from $23.6 to $25.7 billion in 2009, and a 10.8 percent increase in 2010.
What will drive this growth? In short, more advertisers waking up to smell the recession. Newspapers make up only 5 percent of Americans’ media diet, yet they consume 30 percent of ad dollars. A report from Morgan Stanley last month revealed that, last year, advertisers spent $288 per home on internet advertising and $818 per home on newspaper ads. There’s something wrong with that picture when “death spiral” is the phrase usually ascribed to the state of print journalism. And more brands are starting to realize it — newspaper advertising has dropped 18 percent (about $2 billion) from this quarter last year.
Innovation increasingly imported from Asia
I appreciate Fareed Zakaria’s vision of a post-American world, but if we’re talking about 2009, I’d narrow it down to just Asia. Already, China and India produce five times as many engineers as the U.S., and it’s predicted that 90 percent of all engineers will hail from Asia by 2011. Yes, as in two years from now.
For the time being, the U.S. leads in R&D worldwide with 35 percent of the total output. China comes in second with 16 percent, and Japan in third with 13 percent — but both are catching up fast. The money is there, no doubt. It’s the culture of creativity and entrepreneurship that will really give these countries the boost they need. Innovation and idea generation are fairly strong in Japan and Korea, and have been picking up in China and India due to improving education and a reverse diaspora. Taking these factors into account, Asia is clearly poised to overtake the west in technological achievement in the coming decade.
As a student of Czech economist Joseph Schumpeter and Columbia University’s Richard Nelson, I believe that this type of achievement is the primary driver for long-term economic growth. With its workforce dominating engineering, its growing entrepreneurial spirit and its hunger for knowledge, Asia is positioning itself as the world’s primary economic engine — with the potential to reign indefinitely.
Regardless, the U.S. will maintain its leadership in innovation through the end of next year, but perhaps not long after that. Will Asia’s brute strength in the tech arena outweigh cultural, legal and policy limitations?
This is a question not just for 2009, but the next five or even ten years. For now, these are my predictions for the year ahead. Do you agree? What global trends do you taking hold in 2009 and beyond?
Originally posted at VentureBeat.
I was playing with the idea of titling this column “Top Ten Tech Bailouts for 2009″ or “DeathCrunch: 2009,” but thought it best to keep our VentureBeat readers in high spirits (what with the holiday cheer and all). So without further ado, here are my top global trends to watch for the new year:
PC and online gaming continue healthy growth
There is no better indicator of this than World of Warcraft’s Wrath of the Lich King’s first-day sale of 2.8 million copies in mid-November. At $40 each, this accounts for $112 million, an astounding figure. I imagine the folks at Blizzard Entertainment had a pretty nice holiday party — drinking eggnog and munching on gingerbread cookies, macaroons and Turkish Delight to their hearts’ content…
And it’s not just the geeks keeping this segment of the market afloat either. Remember Swingers? Solid proof that cool, hip, unemployed men (and there will be many more of them) tend to play a lot of games.
But does this mean that all video game companies are recession-proof? Will that many more people opt for lazy, relatively inexpensive entertainment over going out? Not really. The NPD Group, a leading consumer market research firm, recently issued a report showing a dip in the overall video game market. October saw an 18 percent increase over sales from last year, but November’s sales were only up 10 percent. So the downturn is in fact taking a toll.
Console sales — which made up $9.4 billion of the $18.9 billion gaming industry in 2007 (according to the Entertainment Software Association) — will take a major hit. How many people will be willing to drop a few hundred bucks on a console? Plus $50 more for a game easily finished in a few days or weeks? That’s a lot to ask in the current environment. Even perennial favorites like Rock Band and Wii Fit will probably trend down due to expensive accessories.
PC and online gaming account for only 9.5 percent of total gaming sales ($9.5 billion). But the segment has the strongest prospects for growth. MMORPGs (massively-multiplayer online role-playing games) and others with multi-dimensional interaction options provide continuous character development, storylines and gameplay that bring you into contact with likeminded others. This gives them longevity and makes them worthier of that initial investment.
Video game makers should take note: Titles that deliver more value over a longer period of time will bring in more money during tough times — and that’s exactly what PC and online games do.
Surface computing slowly breaks into the mainstream
Traditional mouse and keyboard setups will start to be replaced by touch-sensitive screens that allow users to control functions with their fingertips. Hewlett-Packard’s TouchSmart PC is just the beginning.
I’m far from becoming a Microsoft fan, but Microsoft Surface is an important step forward for this technology, which will only become more pervasive in the next year. And Microsoft isn’t the only player in the game. As a TEDster, I have to plug Jeff Han’s multi-touch interface (see video below). All the while, Innotive, a company I advised, offers very cool interactive display technology.
The novelty of surface computing has led Microsoft into partnerships with Sheraton Hotels, Disney and Harrah’s Casino Hotels. These resorts have installed touch screens in their lobbies to provide local information and media tailored to their customers’ needs. The technology may only be mindly entertaining for now, but it provides substantial practical value. With the ubiquity of the iPhone, multi-touch screens are becoming increasingly intuitive, and already feel more natural than typing on a keypad in some settings. Say, for example, you are presented with a multi-touch screen as a menu in a restaurant — one click with your finger orders your meal.
But there’s even more potential in the boardroom with smart white boards becoming a reality. Imagine all the graphic facilitation geeks in your office suddenly gaining the ability to map out their ideas with just their hands? Joyous pandemonium! Dry-erase marker bonfires amid hearty rounds of Kumbaya! (At least that’s how I picture it.)
Shift from offline to online ad spend picks up speed
Advertising goliath GroupM projects that global ad spend will decrease by 0.2 percent to $458 billion in 2009 — dropping 3.2 percent to $157 billion in the U.S. alone. But I think online ad spend is a different story, and should see slow but steady growth. After all, eMarketer forecasts an 8.8 percent increase in online ad spend from $23.6 to $25.7 billion in 2009, and a 10.8 percent increase in 2010.
What will drive this growth? In short, more advertisers waking up to smell the recession. Newspapers make up only 5 percent of Americans’ media diet, yet they consume 30 percent of ad dollars. A report from Morgan Stanley last month revealed that, last year, advertisers spent $288 per home on internet advertising and $818 per home on newspaper ads. There’s something wrong with that picture when “death spiral” is the phrase usually ascribed to the state of print journalism. And more brands are starting to realize it — newspaper advertising has dropped 18 percent (about $2 billion) from this quarter last year.
Innovation increasingly imported from Asia
I appreciate Fareed Zakaria’s vision of a post-American world, but if we’re talking about 2009, I’d narrow it down to just Asia. Already, China and India produce five times as many engineers as the U.S., and it’s predicted that 90 percent of all engineers will hail from Asia by 2011. Yes, as in two years from now.
For the time being, the U.S. leads in R&D worldwide with 35 percent of the total output. China comes in second with 16 percent, and Japan in third with 13 percent — but both are catching up fast. The money is there, no doubt. It’s the culture of creativity and entrepreneurship that will really give these countries the boost they need. Innovation and idea generation are fairly strong in Japan and Korea, and have been picking up in China and India due to improving education and a reverse diaspora. Taking these factors into account, Asia is clearly poised to overtake the west in technological achievement in the coming decade.
As a student of Czech economist Joseph Schumpeter and Columbia University’s Richard Nelson, I believe that this type of achievement is the primary driver for long-term economic growth. With its workforce dominating engineering, its growing entrepreneurial spirit and its hunger for knowledge, Asia is positioning itself as the world’s primary economic engine — with the potential to reign indefinitely.
Regardless, the U.S. will maintain its leadership in innovation through the end of next year, but perhaps not long after that. Will Asia’s brute strength in the tech arena outweigh cultural, legal and policy limitations?
This is a question not just for 2009, but the next five or even ten years. For now, these are my predictions for the year ahead. Do you agree? What global trends do you taking hold in 2009 and beyond?
Originally posted at VentureBeat.
Friday, July 25, 2008
MobileBeat, Mobile Web Wars, TechCrunch Party
Thursday I attended VentureBeat's MobileBeat 2008 and was pleasantly surprised. The event was well done. Matt Marshall, Tim Chang, and others did great at moderating. Good energy, the panels were informative, and the crowd was good. Some random facts to note:
- Total U.S. subscribers in Q1 of 2008 was 255 million.
- 198 million text messengers.
- 123 million multimedia SMSers.
- 95 million Internet users through mobile.
U.S. market has a 16% penetration rate of mobile users using the Internet. 95 million subscribers pay for mobile Internet access.
4% of mobile internet users have iPhones, but they access the Internet 5x the average.
- PC Home users 120 million
- Mobile users 40 million
- Mobile Lift: 14% (outside the overlap of PC Home users & Mobile)
- Unduplicated audience is 137 million
VentureBeat's review, "Thanks for coming to MobileBeat 2008"
Friday I went to meeting after meeting and then attended TechCrunch's Mobile Web Wars. It was an entertaining panel, but a bit chaotic since there were 19 panelists. Arrington and David Rivas from Nokia were going at it early on, which was amusing and prompted me to Twitter about it (rare occasion that I tweet on live events).
Anyway, I went to the TechCrunch August Capital party afterwards. I couldn't go last year due to being knee deep in my startup, but went the year before. It is good being out and about again after being in a cave for a couple years. This whole year has been good since I've been finally putting together real people with faces on various social networks or email correspondence.
- Total U.S. subscribers in Q1 of 2008 was 255 million.
- 198 million text messengers.
- 123 million multimedia SMSers.
- 95 million Internet users through mobile.
U.S. market has a 16% penetration rate of mobile users using the Internet. 95 million subscribers pay for mobile Internet access.
4% of mobile internet users have iPhones, but they access the Internet 5x the average.
- PC Home users 120 million
- Mobile users 40 million
- Mobile Lift: 14% (outside the overlap of PC Home users & Mobile)
- Unduplicated audience is 137 million
VentureBeat's review, "Thanks for coming to MobileBeat 2008"
Friday I went to meeting after meeting and then attended TechCrunch's Mobile Web Wars. It was an entertaining panel, but a bit chaotic since there were 19 panelists. Arrington and David Rivas from Nokia were going at it early on, which was amusing and prompted me to Twitter about it (rare occasion that I tweet on live events).
Anyway, I went to the TechCrunch August Capital party afterwards. I couldn't go last year due to being knee deep in my startup, but went the year before. It is good being out and about again after being in a cave for a couple years. This whole year has been good since I've been finally putting together real people with faces on various social networks or email correspondence.
Friday, February 15, 2008
Qbox Facebook App Launches!
Qbox is a cool startup that I advise. It's a social music play that allows users to access and play free music through their player/application. You can either download it for your desktop, embed a player on your blog (e.g. Xanga, Blogger:), or as they just launched several hours ago on your Facebook profile. What's cool is that typically a video from YouTube or another social network plays in the embedded player, so your blog or site becomes more active and lively.
Here are some screenshots from my Facebook profile:
I didn't post this before, but VentureBeat referred to them in a longer piece on online music sites, "38 free/cheap music sites — Welcome to the fray, Qbox!"
Here are some screenshots from my Facebook profile:
I didn't post this before, but VentureBeat referred to them in a longer piece on online music sites, "38 free/cheap music sites — Welcome to the fray, Qbox!"
Saturday, January 19, 2008
Slide at $550 Million?... Am I Missing Something?
So Kara Swisher broke the news on Slide's $50 million investment from Fidelity and T. Rowe Price for 9%, which values the company at $550 million.
More from Kara, "Slip-Sliding Into a Fortune"
From VentureBeat, "Widget-maker Slide raises $50 million at $550 million valuation"
As Matt Marshall from VentureBeat states, I don't know Slide's revenues, but I never heard it being significant or wildly successful enough to earn such a valuation.
So maybe we are already into bubble territory. Are we really getting crazy stupid? Or is it because these large institutional investors desperately need to put their money to work? I didn't even know that T. Rowe Price had a private equity arm since it's known as a mutual fund. Because of the sub-prime crisis, various private equity deals have been dropped over the past several months, so maybe they are throwing money at earlier stage deals they wouldn't have touched a year ago? And what's $25 million to a multi-billion dollar fund? It would be interesting to learn more about how this deal came down and listen to the negotiations on Slide's valuation.
More from Kara, "Slip-Sliding Into a Fortune"
From VentureBeat, "Widget-maker Slide raises $50 million at $550 million valuation"
As Matt Marshall from VentureBeat states, I don't know Slide's revenues, but I never heard it being significant or wildly successful enough to earn such a valuation.
So maybe we are already into bubble territory. Are we really getting crazy stupid? Or is it because these large institutional investors desperately need to put their money to work? I didn't even know that T. Rowe Price had a private equity arm since it's known as a mutual fund. Because of the sub-prime crisis, various private equity deals have been dropped over the past several months, so maybe they are throwing money at earlier stage deals they wouldn't have touched a year ago? And what's $25 million to a multi-billion dollar fund? It would be interesting to learn more about how this deal came down and listen to the negotiations on Slide's valuation.
Thursday, December 20, 2007
"U.S. TECH TRENDS FOR 2008"
So my op-ed went up on VentureBeat today, so check it out here. Thanks to Jill, my editor, for helping me refine this piece.
Also Matt Marshall, founder of VentureBeat, trimmed a bit of fat off my original article, so I decided to publish the whole thing here:
U.S. Tech Trends for 2008
A couple of months ago, my wife and I visited Seoul, South Korea—a trip that inspired me to come up with a list of technology predictions for 2008 and beyond. It’s been a couple of years since I’ve ventured to make such prognostications—and I didn’t really plan to do so now—but the land that brought us bottle service (with clubs there serving overpriced alcohol for more than 25 years), MMORPGs (massive multiplayer online role playing game), and paid online casual gaming serves as a good place for both spotting trends and thinking about those that are emerging back home. Hence my crystal-ball observations of what’s lurking on the immediate and not-so-immediate technology horizon—both the trends on their way here and those the United States will export to the rest of the world
Mobile videoconferencing reaches the states. If you’re a teen, the only thing better than gabbing on your cell with a friend would be gabbing on your cell with a bunch of friends—and seeing each of them on screen as you do so. In Korea kids are doing just this—videoconferencing as they speak to friends via mobile handsets—and loving it. Since kids are kids everywhere, we can expect to see a similar response in the United States, though we probably won’t see it happen before the end of 2008. Unlike Korea—which has the only commercial WiMAX networks in the world—the United States doesn’t have the Mobile WiMAX capabilities required to stream video at 8 megabits per second or greater (16 Mbps or greater for downloads). In this country, you’re lucky if your cable modem service gets 6 Mbps—and a range of 2 Mbps to 4 Mbps is far more typical. When mobile videoconferencing does become a reality here, how will it impact handset manufacturers? Can we expect to see larger mobile phones and bigger screens as a result? Only time will tell.
Virtual currencies warm up. Content is not the only driver for sustainable online communities; virtual economics play an important role as well, with virtual currency serving as an increasingly critical tool. Virtual goods already provide a viable business model in online worlds—with companies providing outlets in which players can convert in-game assets into real-world wealth (and vice-versa). Now, virtual goods are starting to find their way into every other area of the Net as well—only now it’s not just about generating revenue but about paying people (in virtual currency) for their eyeballs. Already used to grab users’ attention for online product launches and games, virtual currency (and virtual economies) could before long become a common feature in all online networks and worlds. As companies and services fight for users’ attention, we can expect to see more and more of them rewarding users with virtual coins or points that users can trade for cash or noncash goods and services. Worst-case scenario, we all turn into brain-dead mouse clickers obsessed with accumulating Yelp and Starwood points. Best-case scenario, we’re rewarded for our time and effort with healthy incentives.
Semantic Web begins to slowly gel. Tim Berners-Lee’s vision of the Web of the future—in which data itself becomes part of the Web and can be processed independently of application, platform, or domain—is finally becoming a reality … albeit slowly. Thus, in 2008, we can expect the various filtering, aggregating, and grouping efforts to continue as the Web 2.0 services that initially captured our attention (such as Radar Networks and Adaptive Blue) expand and evolve. Now, the questions become, how will data be organized—by advanced algorithms? Human-powered (no, not Mahalo)? And what format or tools will be used—tagging? Grouping? And finally, what do users want—friends’ feeds? Multimedia files? The latest books, photos, and gossip on Britney Spears? I believe we’ll see a couple of tangible and useful services take off next year (some of the stealth startups I’ll be writing about soon).
Location-based mobile services gain ground. According to Morgan Stanley analyst Mary Meeker, 20 percent of mobile phones currently include the satellite-based navigation system Global Positioning System (GPS)—a number that’s expected to grow to 50 percent within five years. This means that at last a critical mass of end users has emerged for the location-based mobile services that take advantage of GPS. Thus, we can expect to see a surge of activity in this area. I can visualize it already—my weight soaring as In-N-Out pushes me a coupon every time I get within proximity of an outlet, my credit card bills soaring as Nordstrom’s and Macy’s send my wife sales notices and coupons. It will be horrible; I’ll be dragged to these places more often. Forget it, I hate location-based services already!
Interactive TV makes a comeback. This won’t be like watching Evander Holyfield or Mike Tyson attempting a comeback—a one-time champ too old and worn out to rise to prominence again. Instead, it will be more like watching a boxer who debuted too early return and live up to his initial promise. This time around the infrastructure is actually cost-effective; the integration of the Internet and TV has created infinite collaborative possibilities; and new entrants (such as consumer electronics makers) are eyeing the market. Interactive TV won’t be a media champ; however, it will serve as an important secondary source for information, commerce, and social networking. Efforts such as Apple TV (which combines Internet content and television) represent the first step in Internet content being ported to millions of U.S. couch potatoes. With consumer electronics manufacturers eager to capture more of their customers’ mindshare, this represents a potential battleground for cable and satellite operators.
My trip to Korea made me appreciate our flat world—and the excitement it affords by allowing us to observe trends occurring across the globe and to witness the way technology bridges gaps in culture and human behavior. Watch for the trends I’ve spotlighted here to emerge in 2008 and beyond—and let me know what technology trends you see on the horizon.
Also Matt Marshall, founder of VentureBeat, trimmed a bit of fat off my original article, so I decided to publish the whole thing here:
U.S. Tech Trends for 2008
A couple of months ago, my wife and I visited Seoul, South Korea—a trip that inspired me to come up with a list of technology predictions for 2008 and beyond. It’s been a couple of years since I’ve ventured to make such prognostications—and I didn’t really plan to do so now—but the land that brought us bottle service (with clubs there serving overpriced alcohol for more than 25 years), MMORPGs (massive multiplayer online role playing game), and paid online casual gaming serves as a good place for both spotting trends and thinking about those that are emerging back home. Hence my crystal-ball observations of what’s lurking on the immediate and not-so-immediate technology horizon—both the trends on their way here and those the United States will export to the rest of the world
Mobile videoconferencing reaches the states. If you’re a teen, the only thing better than gabbing on your cell with a friend would be gabbing on your cell with a bunch of friends—and seeing each of them on screen as you do so. In Korea kids are doing just this—videoconferencing as they speak to friends via mobile handsets—and loving it. Since kids are kids everywhere, we can expect to see a similar response in the United States, though we probably won’t see it happen before the end of 2008. Unlike Korea—which has the only commercial WiMAX networks in the world—the United States doesn’t have the Mobile WiMAX capabilities required to stream video at 8 megabits per second or greater (16 Mbps or greater for downloads). In this country, you’re lucky if your cable modem service gets 6 Mbps—and a range of 2 Mbps to 4 Mbps is far more typical. When mobile videoconferencing does become a reality here, how will it impact handset manufacturers? Can we expect to see larger mobile phones and bigger screens as a result? Only time will tell.
Virtual currencies warm up. Content is not the only driver for sustainable online communities; virtual economics play an important role as well, with virtual currency serving as an increasingly critical tool. Virtual goods already provide a viable business model in online worlds—with companies providing outlets in which players can convert in-game assets into real-world wealth (and vice-versa). Now, virtual goods are starting to find their way into every other area of the Net as well—only now it’s not just about generating revenue but about paying people (in virtual currency) for their eyeballs. Already used to grab users’ attention for online product launches and games, virtual currency (and virtual economies) could before long become a common feature in all online networks and worlds. As companies and services fight for users’ attention, we can expect to see more and more of them rewarding users with virtual coins or points that users can trade for cash or noncash goods and services. Worst-case scenario, we all turn into brain-dead mouse clickers obsessed with accumulating Yelp and Starwood points. Best-case scenario, we’re rewarded for our time and effort with healthy incentives.
Semantic Web begins to slowly gel. Tim Berners-Lee’s vision of the Web of the future—in which data itself becomes part of the Web and can be processed independently of application, platform, or domain—is finally becoming a reality … albeit slowly. Thus, in 2008, we can expect the various filtering, aggregating, and grouping efforts to continue as the Web 2.0 services that initially captured our attention (such as Radar Networks and Adaptive Blue) expand and evolve. Now, the questions become, how will data be organized—by advanced algorithms? Human-powered (no, not Mahalo)? And what format or tools will be used—tagging? Grouping? And finally, what do users want—friends’ feeds? Multimedia files? The latest books, photos, and gossip on Britney Spears? I believe we’ll see a couple of tangible and useful services take off next year (some of the stealth startups I’ll be writing about soon).
Location-based mobile services gain ground. According to Morgan Stanley analyst Mary Meeker, 20 percent of mobile phones currently include the satellite-based navigation system Global Positioning System (GPS)—a number that’s expected to grow to 50 percent within five years. This means that at last a critical mass of end users has emerged for the location-based mobile services that take advantage of GPS. Thus, we can expect to see a surge of activity in this area. I can visualize it already—my weight soaring as In-N-Out pushes me a coupon every time I get within proximity of an outlet, my credit card bills soaring as Nordstrom’s and Macy’s send my wife sales notices and coupons. It will be horrible; I’ll be dragged to these places more often. Forget it, I hate location-based services already!
Interactive TV makes a comeback. This won’t be like watching Evander Holyfield or Mike Tyson attempting a comeback—a one-time champ too old and worn out to rise to prominence again. Instead, it will be more like watching a boxer who debuted too early return and live up to his initial promise. This time around the infrastructure is actually cost-effective; the integration of the Internet and TV has created infinite collaborative possibilities; and new entrants (such as consumer electronics makers) are eyeing the market. Interactive TV won’t be a media champ; however, it will serve as an important secondary source for information, commerce, and social networking. Efforts such as Apple TV (which combines Internet content and television) represent the first step in Internet content being ported to millions of U.S. couch potatoes. With consumer electronics manufacturers eager to capture more of their customers’ mindshare, this represents a potential battleground for cable and satellite operators.
My trip to Korea made me appreciate our flat world—and the excitement it affords by allowing us to observe trends occurring across the globe and to witness the way technology bridges gaps in culture and human behavior. Watch for the trends I’ve spotlighted here to emerge in 2008 and beyond—and let me know what technology trends you see on the horizon.
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