Groupon will become the Sarah Palin of tech, and other predictions for 2011

My 4th annual technology prediction piece is up over at VentureBeat. Check it out!

Groupon will become the Sarah Palin of tech, and other predictions for 2011

2011 will be a year of economic recovery and continued drama in Silicon Valley, marked by the hyped battles of Apple vs. Google, Google vs. Facebook, and Oracle vs. the rest of the enterprise world. Without further ado, here is the 4th annual edition of my technology predictions.

The Groupon Juggernaut Will Slow Down
Groupon is quickly becoming the Sarah Palin of the technology world. It has its haters (Forrester’s Sucharita Mulpuru), doubters (Flybridge Capital’s Jeff Bussgang) and fans (FM’s John Battelle) like the former vice presidential candidate. Everyone seems to have an opinion of Groupon, whether through their own personal experiences or spurred by a coffee talk at Coupa Café in Palo Alto. Being from Chicago, where the company is based, I wanted to be a fan, but I have strong doubts on the sustainability of its business model. It will remain successful, but will it be the next Amazon or “Google of e-commerce” as many people predict? I just don’t see it. Maybe its critical mass and huge funding rounds will sustain its market share for a couple years, but the competitive barriers of entry are too low, so I predict its revenue growth will begin to slow towards the end of 2011. A few years from now, this darling of the ecommerce space will be a fading memory... (full article)


This was also republished in The New York Times' Technology section here.

Peek at Honeycomb, Android 3.0

Very cool preview video below. And yes, Christine went to Las Vegas/CES for work (she's part of the Android team). I had to sacrifice and stay home with our girls, eat by myself, and have access to unlimited ESPN and Starcraft2... poor me. More from Andy Rubin and the Google Mobile Blog here.

Mobile TV in Korea on Galaxy S, FaceTime is Behind in Korea

Just a video shot (from my Samsung Galaxy S) of a Galaxy S in South Korea. My friend, Eugene, was just showing me the mobile TV (terrestrial DMB) service which comes standard on many phones in Korea. Korea was the first to launch mobile TV in the world with initially satellite DMB/TV and then regular terrestrial DMB/TV became available several months later. One source states that this was launched in 2005, but I remember some of my friends getting early access to mobile TV in Korea during 2004. Maybe my memory is fading as I hit forty.



Also since mobile video conferencing has been in Korea for several years (Apple calls this "FaceTime" like it was something they invented), Eugene talked about how it was lame on the iPhone 4 since it's limited to other iPhone 4s while in Korea other mobile phones allow video conferencing across all phone models and wireless networks.

Lunsford Group Wireless Industry Snapshot 2010

I recently update an internal document for our firm that I made which serves as a wireless industry "cheat sheet," or quick reference guide. Nothing proprietary, so I thought I would share it with all of you.

Lunsford Group Wireless Industry Snapshot 2010

View more presentations from Bernard Moon.

SK Telecom's Google Android Promos

SK Telecom's promo for Google's Android platform in Korea. Little Androids in the subway.


Promo at Phoenix Park ski resort in Korea. Very cute.

2010 AT&T Developer Summit in Las Vegas

Just received this notice for you mobile developers out there:

"The 2010 AT&T Developer Summit is a full day event giving developers first access to exciting technology announcements, strategy, guidance, and tools for developing applications on the AT&T Network and devices.

By attending the 2010 AT&T Developer Summit, you will be the first to learn about new developments in our technology roadmaps through a morning of General Sessions including the Executive Keynote by Ralph de la Vega, President and CEO of AT&T Mobility and Consumer Markets. You’ll also be able to customize your Summit experience through four different tracks of presentations, panels, and demos for developers wanting to build, market, and sell applications and devices."

The event will be on January 6th, 2010 at the Palms in Las Vegas.

MiLi Pro: iPhone, iPod Video Projector

Very cool iPhone accessory launching in September 2009:

Announcing the PhoneSuit MiLi Pro...
The MiLi Pro is a breakthrough in iPhone and iPod accessory technology. It's an iPhone / iPod compatible, rechargeable, micro video projector. The power of the PhoneSuit MiLi Battery has been coupled with the convenience of a portable video projector and speaker system. Watch all of your movies, video clips, podcasts and more with ease! Now you can carry your own personal movie theater with you, anywhere you travel.

Innovative Micro Projector Technology
The MiLi Pro incorporates the latest in technology, an LCOS, LED driven micro projector. This ultra-compact projector fits in the palm of your hand. It has the capability to display 640x480 high resolution images on most any viewing surface. Use the focus wheel to fine tune your image quality. Scale your iPhone's video up to a 40 inch for screen for eye strain free, relaxed viewing.

@TechCrunch50: Day 2... Tonchidot, Best Demo So Far

Tonchidot with their Sekai Camera ("world camera" in Japanese) demo drew the loudest and most emotional applause of the day. Might have been the only applause greater than a few people so far at TechCrunch50.

CrunchBase Information

TonchiDot

Information provided by CrunchBase

Just watch the video. My words are not needed here.

MobileBeat, Mobile Web Wars, TechCrunch Party

Thursday I attended VentureBeat's MobileBeat 2008 and was pleasantly surprised. The event was well done. Matt Marshall, Tim Chang, and others did great at moderating. Good energy, the panels were informative, and the crowd was good. Some random facts to note:

- Total U.S. subscribers in Q1 of 2008 was 255 million.
- 198 million text messengers.
- 123 million multimedia SMSers.
- 95 million Internet users through mobile.

U.S. market has a 16% penetration rate of mobile users using the Internet. 95 million subscribers pay for mobile Internet access.

4% of mobile internet users have iPhones, but they access the Internet 5x the average.

- PC Home users 120 million
- Mobile users 40 million
- Mobile Lift: 14% (outside the overlap of PC Home users & Mobile)
- Unduplicated audience is 137 million

VentureBeat's review, "Thanks for coming to MobileBeat 2008"


Friday I went to meeting after meeting and then attended TechCrunch's Mobile Web Wars. It was an entertaining panel, but a bit chaotic since there were 19 panelists. Arrington and David Rivas from Nokia were going at it early on, which was amusing and prompted me to Twitter about it (rare occasion that I tweet on live events).

Anyway, I went to the TechCrunch August Capital party afterwards. I couldn't go last year due to being knee deep in my startup, but went the year before. It is good being out and about again after being in a cave for a couple years. This whole year has been good since I've been finally putting together real people with faces on various social networks or email correspondence.

Duo Guo... Mobile Content Retail Store

HatTip to Jai. This concept in China is pretty cool. From Duo Guo's website:

DUO GUO (多果) owns and operates China's leading network of retail stores exclusively selling mobile content and services.

Based in Shanghai, the Company has developed partnerships with China's largest retailers and leading global media companies to bring the best games, ringtones, software and other mobile services to China's 500 million mobile phone users in an exciting retail setting. The Company is privately held and operates as a wholly-owned subsidiary of D Mobile, Inc.


My friend Jimmy thought about starting this type of retail store a few years back, but obviously he didn't execute on it :)

Anyway, Duo Guo seems like a great concept for countries where there is a high level of mobile activity (e.g. gaming, content viewing, location-based services), such China, Korea, Japan, and a few European markets.

More from Springwise, "Brick-and-Mortar Kiosks Sell Mobile Content"

Samsung Instinct Breaks Best Buy Sales Record

Over at IntoMobile, they are reporting that "Sprint's Instinct is now the best-selling handset to have graced Best Buy's inventory in the past two years."

I wonder how many Instincts have been sold over this period? Doing a quick search didn't bring up anything. Q1 of this year there were nearly 31 million handsets sold in the U.S. and Samsung was number two after Motorola.

Putting Apple's iPhone in perspective, I believe they have sold 4 million so far, which is about what Nokia sells in a week globally.

"U.S. TECH TRENDS FOR 2008"

So my op-ed went up on VentureBeat today, so check it out here. Thanks to Jill, my editor, for helping me refine this piece.

Also Matt Marshall, founder of VentureBeat, trimmed a bit of fat off my original article, so I decided to publish the whole thing here:

U.S. Tech Trends for 2008

A couple of months ago, my wife and I visited Seoul, South Korea—a trip that inspired me to come up with a list of technology predictions for 2008 and beyond. It’s been a couple of years since I’ve ventured to make such prognostications—and I didn’t really plan to do so now—but the land that brought us bottle service (with clubs there serving overpriced alcohol for more than 25 years), MMORPGs (massive multiplayer online role playing game), and paid online casual gaming serves as a good place for both spotting trends and thinking about those that are emerging back home. Hence my crystal-ball observations of what’s lurking on the immediate and not-so-immediate technology horizon—both the trends on their way here and those the United States will export to the rest of the world

Mobile videoconferencing reaches the states. If you’re a teen, the only thing better than gabbing on your cell with a friend would be gabbing on your cell with a bunch of friends—and seeing each of them on screen as you do so. In Korea kids are doing just this—videoconferencing as they speak to friends via mobile handsets—and loving it. Since kids are kids everywhere, we can expect to see a similar response in the United States, though we probably won’t see it happen before the end of 2008. Unlike Korea—which has the only commercial WiMAX networks in the world—the United States doesn’t have the Mobile WiMAX capabilities required to stream video at 8 megabits per second or greater (16 Mbps or greater for downloads). In this country, you’re lucky if your cable modem service gets 6 Mbps—and a range of 2 Mbps to 4 Mbps is far more typical. When mobile videoconferencing does become a reality here, how will it impact handset manufacturers? Can we expect to see larger mobile phones and bigger screens as a result? Only time will tell.

Virtual currencies warm up. Content is not the only driver for sustainable online communities; virtual economics play an important role as well, with virtual currency serving as an increasingly critical tool. Virtual goods already provide a viable business model in online worlds—with companies providing outlets in which players can convert in-game assets into real-world wealth (and vice-versa). Now, virtual goods are starting to find their way into every other area of the Net as well—only now it’s not just about generating revenue but about paying people (in virtual currency) for their eyeballs. Already used to grab users’ attention for online product launches and games, virtual currency (and virtual economies) could before long become a common feature in all online networks and worlds. As companies and services fight for users’ attention, we can expect to see more and more of them rewarding users with virtual coins or points that users can trade for cash or noncash goods and services. Worst-case scenario, we all turn into brain-dead mouse clickers obsessed with accumulating Yelp and Starwood points. Best-case scenario, we’re rewarded for our time and effort with healthy incentives.

Semantic Web begins to slowly gel. Tim Berners-Lee’s vision of the Web of the future—in which data itself becomes part of the Web and can be processed independently of application, platform, or domain—is finally becoming a reality … albeit slowly. Thus, in 2008, we can expect the various filtering, aggregating, and grouping efforts to continue as the Web 2.0 services that initially captured our attention (such as Radar Networks and Adaptive Blue) expand and evolve. Now, the questions become, how will data be organized—by advanced algorithms? Human-powered (no, not Mahalo)? And what format or tools will be used—tagging? Grouping? And finally, what do users want—friends’ feeds? Multimedia files? The latest books, photos, and gossip on Britney Spears? I believe we’ll see a couple of tangible and useful services take off next year (some of the stealth startups I’ll be writing about soon).

Location-based mobile services gain ground. According to Morgan Stanley analyst Mary Meeker, 20 percent of mobile phones currently include the satellite-based navigation system Global Positioning System (GPS)—a number that’s expected to grow to 50 percent within five years. This means that at last a critical mass of end users has emerged for the location-based mobile services that take advantage of GPS. Thus, we can expect to see a surge of activity in this area. I can visualize it already—my weight soaring as In-N-Out pushes me a coupon every time I get within proximity of an outlet, my credit card bills soaring as Nordstrom’s and Macy’s send my wife sales notices and coupons. It will be horrible; I’ll be dragged to these places more often. Forget it, I hate location-based services already!

Interactive TV makes a comeback. This won’t be like watching Evander Holyfield or Mike Tyson attempting a comeback—a one-time champ too old and worn out to rise to prominence again. Instead, it will be more like watching a boxer who debuted too early return and live up to his initial promise. This time around the infrastructure is actually cost-effective; the integration of the Internet and TV has created infinite collaborative possibilities; and new entrants (such as consumer electronics makers) are eyeing the market. Interactive TV won’t be a media champ; however, it will serve as an important secondary source for information, commerce, and social networking. Efforts such as Apple TV (which combines Internet content and television) represent the first step in Internet content being ported to millions of U.S. couch potatoes. With consumer electronics manufacturers eager to capture more of their customers’ mindshare, this represents a potential battleground for cable and satellite operators.

My trip to Korea made me appreciate our flat world—and the excitement it affords by allowing us to observe trends occurring across the globe and to witness the way technology bridges gaps in culture and human behavior. Watch for the trends I’ve spotlighted here to emerge in 2008 and beyond—and let me know what technology trends you see on the horizon.