2084

I don't believe it's been over two months since I wrote something for AlwaysOn. Work has just occupied my time and mindshare. This week's article has been sitting on my desktop unfinished for at least six weeks. Horrible.

Below is the link to my article and I decided just for fun to post my first draft of the article.

2084
With apologies to Mr. Orwell, the future looks a bit different than that depicted in the pages of his seminal volume.

In the aftermath of the July London bombings, the first photos to come out of that tragedy were from camera phones, and the first commentary to appear came from blogs. Like many in the blogosphere, I expected this. Then I had an epiphany.

In imagining our society years from now—when technology is ubiquitous worldwide, mobile devices have proliferated, cameras are posted everywhere, online identities are commonplace, and information inundation is complete—I realized that George Orwell's vision of 1984 will never truly come to be. Decades from now, even the idea of a totalitarian state will appear utterly ridiculous. Why? Because the innovations and technological advances that will emerge over the next decade will not only improve our quality of life but actually change human behavior and alter the fundamental structures of our societies.

Innovation born a decade past and a decade forward is changing our basic wiring and creating a more transparent world. Now, I'm not saying that technology will cure all of society's ills, but I do believe it will produce tools that can improve communications and living standards across the globe. Today's technological advances are bringing us all closer as physical boundaries are eliminated and people who in other times would never have crossed paths are forging significant bonds.

On a global scale, this technology-spawned collective consciousness will make it impossible for controlling, paranoid governments like the one portrayed in Orwell's "1984" to exist over the long term. Equal access to information and power means that the oppression of the many by the few will no longer be possible. It also means that the general population will likely have a much larger hand in determining the public policy issues that affect us all.

What it doesn't portend is a future like that presented in "Gattaca," a stale advanced civilization dictated by the strict laws and rules of science. On the contrary, as information continues to flood our lives and knowledge builds, we'll create the technology to sort through the chaos, and we'll adapt to a world of terabytes rather than kilobytes.

With respect to George Orwell, here's my Sunday afternoon vision of 2084 ...

Herbert Walker stood in the pouring black rain of Los Angeles tapping his latex shoes while waiting for the AeroBus to arrive. With traffic no longer an issue (since the National Public Air Road Bill was signed into law a decade ago), Herbert didn't mind the rain. The air roads -- designated solely for public transportation vehicles -- have greatly reduced traffic, air pollution, and the number of ground-vehicle users. Jimmy Jun, Herbert's colleague, walks briskly up the AeroBus platform.

"Love this rush-hour 20-minute Irvine-to-Westwood commute. What d'ya say, Jimmy?"

"Love it almost as much as I-pools ..."

I-pools, or "intelligence pools," are vast electronic repositories of shared knowledge that act as a virtual marketplace. Their predecessors were the archaic, Internet-based wiki-pools, which were rendered almost instantly useless (for all but simple information gathering) by the trolls, egomaniacs, and unskilled contributors who quickly ran rampant on them.

Decades later, smartbots were finally developed to comb through these knowledge pools and correct false information, poor structures, and unintelligible contributions. That led to today's I-pools, which inspire almost complete trust in their accuracy and depth. More than repositories of knowledge, I-pools are collaborative marketplaces, where articles are developed, movie scripts are created, and businesses are launched.

"Yeah, remember 20 years ago when we were just starting out? Journalists were almost as underpaid and underappreciated as teachers. Now, the pie is bigger for everyone, and the top talent is finally getting paid well."

"Ha-ha-ha. Are you calling yourself a 'top talent?' "

"Well, six of my articles did get picked by News Corp., Pajamas Media, and the New York Times last month. And one was read by 2 million people in 87 countries."

"OK, OK. There you go again with your numbers. The worst thing about journalism today is that it's so numbers-driven."

"Jealous?"

"Hell, no. I write for my niche of military defense analysts; I have a following. I'd rather be deeply loved by a few than glanced over by many." Jimmy smirked.

"True. [Laughs.] Hey, did you check out Google's new relevancy crosscheck program?"

"Yeah, pretty cool. I actually tested it out last night when I was posting my thoughts up on my cloudpad. After I completed my first few paragraphs, I ran it through 'crosscheck,' and it came up with six articles or references I could use. A couple made great sources to quote, and one was excellent to integrate. What was really coolio was that with a click, I was connected to the author of the piece I wanted to integrate, got his permission, transferred his fee, and it was done."

Herbert and Jimmy step into the AeroBus and settle into its deep seats. Immediately, Herbert inserts a square device into the arm of the bus seat, activating a retinal scan from the seat in front of them.

"Yeah, I forgot to charge my MobileLife last night, so I need a quick boost," Herbert tells Jimmy.

"But you're headed to the office?"

"No. I have a couple interviews on Virtu-Call. One is with some guy in France, and I have to take a picture of him for this article on the outcast lifestyle of people there."

"Really? A Frenchman with Virtu-Call? That's like a Neanderthal with a laser gun."

"Well, he works for a government agency that's trying to develop its manufacturing workforce into information workers."

"Hmmm ... that effort seems about 40 years late. The majority of French workers have become cheap, unskilled labor since that country missed out on the growth years of the Information Age. Only Vivendi is a relevant player in the world economy."

"Yeah, but it's interesting because it's also become a haven for the small segment of Luddites that still exist from the "anti-search movements" of the 2030s."

"Coolio. Just don't send me a copy. I already have 10 books and about 100 articles I want to read this week in my sleep, so I don't need irrelevant junk in my bin."'

"Don't worry, Jimmy, I've known you for more than 40 years?since we met on FaceBook in the second grade. I wasn't going to send it to you."


FIRST DRAFT:

A few months ago, during the time of the London bombings, the first photos to come out that horrible tragedy were from camera phones, and the first commentary that people read came from blogs, and like many of those in the blogosphere I expected this. Then I had an epiphany. I imagined our society years from now as technology becomes ubiquitous worldwide, mobile devices proliferate, cameras are posted everywhere, online identities become commonplace, and people become inundated with more and more information, I realized the world presented in Orwell’s 1984 will never come to be. It won’t even be a remote possibility much less an alternative reality writers can dream up because the idea of a totalitarian state decades from now would become so utterly ridiculous.

The innovation and technological advances over the next decade will not only improve the quality of life for humankind, but change human behavior and the fundamental structures of our societies. Even now, the youth of our society regard email as less useful tool than our generation, make a significant amount of their friends online, and embrace technology instead of fearing it. The weight of innovation that was born a decade past and a decade forward is changing the basic wiring of humans and creating a more transparent world. Of course technology is not a solution or a cure to societal ills and injustices, but a tool that can be applied for the improvement of human communication and living standards across the globe. What is unique about today’s innovations is that they are creating greater connectivity on our earth, crossing numerous borders, and increasing the bonds between people who would have never interacted with each other.

The potential for controlling, paranoid, overbearing governments in “1984” will be crushed by the weight of the collective consciousness that is being formed today. I am not stating that we will become more like-minded in the future, but I do envision issues that are of importance to the general population will be effectively decided or influence by the mediums that are developing today. The oppression by a few to the many will no longer be possible, but will this also mean that the general population will decide upon public policy issues affecting the future well-being of all its citizens? Maybe. This is a scary proposition for some, including myself, but who really knows the mechanisms that will develop in the political arena that complements these techno-societal advancements.

The ostensible information overload that is growing has led people in the past to believe our future will become like the future presented in "Gattaca," a stale advanced civilization dictated by strict laws and rules of science. To a lesser extent, I believe this vision of our future is doom. As information and knowledge continues to flood our lives, we will continue to build the technology that helps us sort through this chaos and our minds will develop to accept a world of terabytes instead of kilobytes. Even children today are beginning to absorb an extraordinary amount of information and multi-task far better than their parents.

I assume when most of you take a pause and contemplate on the significance of the changes occurring around us, we are able to recognize that these are times that people will look back on as ground-breaking, life-changing, or revolutionary.

With respect to George Orwell, the following is my Sunday afternoon attempt to paint a view of 2084…

Herbert Walker stood in the pouring black rain of Los Angeles tapping his latex shoes while waiting for the AeroBus to arrive. No longer a victim of traffic since the National Public Air Road Bill was signed into law a decade ago, the rain was more pleasant for him now. The air roads, which are only designated for public transportation vehicles, have greatly reduced traffic, air pollution, and the number of ground vehicle users. Jimmy Jun, Herbert’s colleague, briskly walks up the AeroBus platform.

"Love this Irvine to Westwood 20 minute commute in the thick of rush hour traffic. What ya say, Jimmy?"

"Herb, I almost love it as much as when the I-pools were created."

I-pools were “Intelligence pools” that were vast electronic repositories of shared information and knowledge that people contributed to while acting as a virtual marketplace. The original predecessor of the I-pools were archaic, Internet-based areas of collaboration called wiki-pools. But these never satisfied the quality standards most people desired since the viruses of inefficiency, such as trolls, ego-maniacs, and unskilled contributors, rendered most of these wiki-pools useless beyond simple information gathering. After decades of mediocrity, they created smartbots that comb through these knowledge-pools and tried to correct false information, poor structures, and unintelligible contributions. Now its progress to its current state as I-pools were there is almost complete trust in their accuracy and depth. Also these I-pools have become more than repositories of knowledge, but marketplaces of collaboration. Articles are developed, movie scripts are made, and businesses launched through these virtual workplaces.

"Yeah, remember twenty years ago when we just started out? Journalists were just as underpaid and unappreciated almost as much as school teachers. The pie is bigger for everyone and the top talent finally gets paid well."

"Hahaha. Are you calling yourself a ‘top talent’?"

"Well, six of my articles did get picked by News Corp, Pajamas Media, and The New York Times last month. One was read by 2 million in 87 countries."

"Ok. Ok. There you go again with your numbers. Probably the worse thing about journalism today is that it’s become so numbers-driven."

"Jealous?"

"Jealous? Hell, no. I write for my niche of military defense analysts, and you know I have a following. I would rather be deeply loved by a few than glanced over by many," Jimmy stated with a smirk.

"True. (Laughs) Hey, did you check out Google’s new relevancy crosscheck program?"

"Yeah, pretty cool. I actually tested it out last night when I was posting my thoughts up on my cloudpad. After I completed my first few paragraphs, I ran it through ‘crosscheck’ and it came up with six articles or references I could use. A couple were great sources to quote and one was excellent to integrate. What was coolio was that with a click I was connected to the author of the piece I wanted to integrate, got his permission, transfer his fee, and it was done."

"Wow. They make really make life easier for us creatives. Hey, the AeroBus is finally here."

Herbert and Jimmy step into the AeroBus and fall into the deep seats of the vehicle. Immediately Herbert inserts a square-shaped device into the arm of the bus seat, which activates a retinal scan from the seat in front of them.

"Yeah, I forgot to charge my MobileLife last night, so I need a quick boost," Herbert tells Jimmy.

"But you’re headed to the office?"

"No. I have a couple interviews on Virtu-Call. One is with some guy in France and I have to take a picture of him for this article on the outcast lifestyle of people there."

"Really? A Frenchman with Virtu-Call? That’s like a Neanderthal with a laser gun."

"Well, he works for a government agency there trying to develop their manufacturing workforce into information workers."

"Hmmm… that effort seems about forty years too late for France. The majority of that country has become cheap, unskilled labor since they missed out on growth years of the information age. Only Vivendi is a relevant player in the world economy."

"Yeah, but it’s interesting because it also has become a haven for the small segment of Luddites that still exist from the 'anti-search movements' of the 2030’s."

"Coolio. Just don’t send me a copy. I already have 10 books and about 100 articles I want to read this week in my sleep, so I don’t need irrelevant junk in my bin."

"Don’t worry, Jimmy, I’ve known you for over forty years now since we first met on FaceBook in second grade, so I wasn’t going to send it to you."


UPDATE: Since the old AlwaysOn site was taken down and posts were not properly transferred, just read the copy at OhmyNews here.

[tags: 1984, george orwell, google, facebook, wikis, wikipedia, pajamas media, future, technology]

Staring Down the Digital Divide

I didn't realize until I checked now that I haven't had an AO piece up for seven weeks. Wow. I thought I laid off writing for about a month, but I guess my sense of time has been off. Now since the wedding planning and wedding is over I will devote more time to getting more articles out at AlwaysOn. Anyway, check it out:

Staring Down the Digital Divide
Bloggers are the haves in the new new economy, but there are plenty of have-nots as well—and none of us can afford to forget them.

Last week on my honeymoon in Crete, Greece, I found myself detached from civilization. Not so much because of the remote locale, the lack of video-on-demand or cable news in my hotel suite, or even the dearth of America fast-food outlets. The real reason for my detachment was that I didn't have Internet access. That's right: No Internet access for an entire week.

Each day I listened as hotel staff explained to me that their "servers were down" which toward the end of my stay I came to interpret as they were never up. There was no access. Ever. A couple days before we left, I spoke with one of the staff technicians, who fed me the same line but also informed me (when asked) that their connection speed was "56K." 56K? I hadn't heard that number/letter combination in about a decade. If this is the speed the majority of the island is connecting at, a digital divide definitely exists between the people here and the folks back home in Silicon Valley.

That conversation took me back 10 years, to when I was working on a consulting project for the city of St. Louis. The community had just received an Enterprise Community Zone grant (baby brother to President Clinton's Empowerment Zone initiative) to improve the quality of life in designated poverty-stricken areas of the city. A portion of the $200,000 grant was allocated to build a "community information network" where people could access information about services provided by the city and local nonprofit organizations.

This network was core to the grant's vision because many of the residents of the impoverished neighborhoods had no knowledge of the basic services that were available to assist in their well-being and development. It was thought that the Internet could serve as an equalizer, granting the residents access to a world of important information.

Our consulting team was to further define the initial vision, create the framework of information provided, and begin to execute as much of it as possible during our short time with the city of St. Louis. This was my first entry into the intersection of the Internet and public policy as well as the project that led me on my path toward technology entrepreneurship. It was also the first time I'd thought seriously about the digital divide that exists within our nation and the world.

I realized then that the explosion of the Internet was widening the gap between society's haves and have-nots. The rapidly growing sea of information and services coming at us from our computer screens was creating a wealth of opportunities for some. But for others it was only accentuating the lack of the same. Knowledge equals power. Thus, when there's unequal access to it, those that are already underserved, undereducated, and underemployed only fall further behind.

Fast-forward to today, and we're reading blogs, using Linkedin or MySpace for social networking, assigning ourselves avatars, and downloading movies through BitTorrent. Now imagine the digital divide between those of us doing the above and the citizens of Crete. Although AlwaysOn readers and bloggers represent a small group at the cutting edge of Internet usage, I think we all believe that our online behavior will gradually become the norm.

The bottom line is that the development of the Web is a great thing -- but also a point of concern. The divide is growing, so that while the superusers are voicing their concerns about digital identities and most U.S. online citizens are at minimum accessing job information, the 24-year-old man in East St. Louis has no idea the world is passing him by. And he is not alone. A 2004 study by the U.S. Department of Commerce revealed that 38.2 percent of U.S. households don't have computers and 45.4 percent of U.S. households don't have Internet access. The study also found that 41.3 percent of the total U.S. population does not use the Internet from any location.

These are shocking figures for those of us who are connected. What's more, the primary reasons given by "those households that have never connected to the Internet at home" suggest problems of cost/value and availability as well as perception: 41.6 percent of those who had never connected at home cited "don't need/not interested" as the reason; 22.9 percent cited "too expensive" as the reason; and 22.5 percent cited "no or inadequate computer available" as the reason.

Whether you're in this country or another, the problem of the digital divide is more tangible than ever -- and one we cannot and should not ignore. Often, altruistic efforts to level the playing field are quickly forgotten after the initial rallying cry, or they get pushed aside by projects with greater political and economic clout.

In the case of my St. Louis project, there was talk among political leaders at the time of using the "community information network" and grant money as a springboard for all residents of the city, not just those in the designated impoverished areas. I viewed this proposal with disgust -- an unabashed attempt by a couple of city aldermen to seek political glory by reaching a greater base of supporters. To my knowledge, the project remained as originally conceived -- serving those who needed it most -- but if we don't keep people accountable and focused on their commitments, many such projects will never reach fruition.

If you're reading this, you're one of the haves: You have access to a computer; you're connected to the Internet -- in short, you're way ahead of the curve. As such, you cannot forget the have-nots, those on the other side of the digital divide. All of us involved in the tech industry (both as workers and those who reap the benefits of technology) must be aware of this gap and think about how we -- both collectively and as individuals -- can address it. If we don't, we'll all pay in the end.


UPDATE: Since the old AlwaysOn site was taken down and posts were not properly transferred, I just kept the full article here.